It really depends.
For new projects, we would usually just take the LTS version, but there comes a moment where it doesn’t make sense to start a new project in such an ‘old’ version anymore. If a clients need to be paying again for a serious upgrade within a short period after their new website is released (in Umbraco 13), it doesn’t make sense. So around Umbraco 15.2, we would start new projects in Umbraco 15 instead of Umbraco 13.
For existing projects, we would give the client the option: have the stability and less upgrades or have the latest features. Our private packages have the same support as Umbraco, so new features only come to the latest version of the packages. But most of them remain on Umbraco 13 and will be upgraded to 17 when it’s out.
Having said that, it depends if you have a lot of customizations to Umbraco. Upgrading the backend stuff from Umbraco 13 to 16 (and probably 17), like APIs, composers, indexes etc isn’t that hard. Yeah there are some caveats and changes, but most of it, is not that hard.
Backoffice changes however have changed massively and have quite a leaning curve. I think the new backoffice in combination with the management API is absolutely brilliant and very future proof, but it takes quite some time to lean. So in that sense, I suggest you start investing in the knowlegde now. I don’t expect Umbraco 17 to have massive changes over 16.
And speaking of Umbraco 16, I think it’s really in a good place. Umbraco 14 was new, but Umbraco 15 has been great to work with so far, getting better with each minor. 16 is just the next improvement, but really not that much different than 15. I would absolutely have no issues starting a new project with Umbraco 16 (although I would usually wait for 16.1, just in case there are some big bugs).
For existing projects, if there is no immediate reason, I’d just wait for 17. After 17 comes out, you still have a year to upgrade from 13. But get into leaning 14+ now 